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It was another tough day in the stock market today; the Dow Jones finished down 295 points, NASDAQ fared even worse, down 103 points, that's about 2.25% These 100-point moves are coming quite often now; in the NASDAQ, the transports were hardest hit once again down 204 points - that's almost 3% When I saw this carnage, I wondered if North Korea had tested another nuclear bomb - early in January the market was down about 250 points and they blamed it on the North Korean bomb test The markets have been moving about that much every single day! What are the odds that the Korean test had anything to do with the market drop that day? Everybody wants to find a way to rationalize a weak market, but look, nothing happened today The financials got clobbered - Goldman Sachs is down 5% on the day, getting ready to break through $150; it was a $200 stock not too long ago There's a lot of air beneath this chart - is that all oil related? You might as well blame today's selloff on the fact that Ted Cruz won the Iowa Caucus The reality is the market is going down because it's a bear market The market's going down because the U.S. economy is in a recession There's nothing the Fed can do without loosing credibility or acknowledge that the economy is much weaker that it thought Going back prior to the rate hike, one of the reasons I constantly said I did not expect the Fed to raise rates is because I knew if they did, they would be in a very bad position I said, what's going to happen if the Fed raises rates and the stock market starts to decline, how are they going to stop it? They cant. Since QE1 in 2009, every time the stock market has faltered the Fed has either launched another round of QE or hinted that it was considering another round That's what saved the market That how "Buy the Dips" worked - you had the Bernanke put or the Yellen put If that put expired with that rate hike in December, then how was the Fed going to stop the carnage? It can't hint about another round of quantitative easing while it's raising rates Most people believe that the Fed will not raise rates 4 times this year, maybe only once or twice But if the market is already collapsing based on the first rate hike, how much lower will it fall if the Fed puts a couple more nails in the coffin? The only the Fed can save this market is to come out and: a) Take future rate hikes off the table and b) Lower rates They are trying to get the ECB and the Bank of Japan to help, and that hasn't worked - each rally has reversed The Fed will have to get in on this: sending the ECB and the Bank of Japan in will not do it. This is a woman's job, and it's going to be Janet Yellen is the only one who can stop the market from falling We're going to get the jobs number this week - with a first look at it with the ADP number tomorrow but we get the big Non-Farm Payroll number on Friday The only thing that can really save this market is a horrific jobs number is really bad, then Janet Yellen can talk about not raising rates based on the jobs numbers, so she doesn't have to claim it is based on the stock market If we get another on of these good jobs numbers, of course it's only good superficially, it's not really good, it's just a high number, then this market's going to tank Because the Fed is back in the predicament of not cutting rates because they don't want to admit that the jobs numbers are bogus I happen to be in the supermarket with my 13-year old son and he noticed a help wanted sign on the door, saying, "Part Time Positions Available - Multiple Departments" They don't want any more full time people - that is the secret to the "strength" in our economy People who dad one full-time job now have 3 part-time jobs, and if those 3 jobs are held by the same individual and collectively equal 35 hrs/wk the government counts each of these full time jobs as full time jobs So now,
